At the moment the majority of mobile apps are developed in house or purchased as non-configurable solutons from an App Store. However, this trend is changing as businesses integrate mobile apps into the very fabric of their operations, requiring more complex levels of integration.
Apps will also need to work across a mix of platforms and form factors (tablets and other evolving technologies in particular). As in the web the apps are likely to become browser-based rather than device resident.
The use cases will evolve to cover more functions within the business so the Smartphone will no longer be the toy for sales or the ruggedized device used by field engineers. Management, business travelers and knowledge workers will all latch on to the benefits of using powerful applications anywhere and at anytime.
This poses an interesting question about build or buy. Increased complexity and portability of apps could suggest professional, external development agencies will become more prevalent in projects. However, as deep integration with existing business systems and data becomes more important, one could argue that firms will want to develop in-house where they have the skills and knowledge about the underlying systems, processes and interfaces.
According to recent research by Forrester ("Mobile Applications Will Empower Enterprise Business Processes", D. Hamerman, Forrester Research, September 2010) 38% of firms still develop their own mobile apps in-house. 27% purchase them from an app store, 25% buy a customer app from an external developer. 24% use a mobile extension of an existing business application (such as SAP or Siebel).
I can see this changing significantly over time with fewer purchases of stock apps from Apps Stores and more external developers being used. The big software vendors will also increase their market share as they mobilize more of their apps and features.
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